On Monday meteorologists watched in disbelief as Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified from a Tropical Storm into a raging Category 5 Hurricane in less than 24 hours. For a brief period last night, Milton's central pressure dropped below 900 mb while sustained winds reached 180 mph, making it the 5th strongest hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic Basin.
Overnight Milton underwent an eye-wall replacement cycle that allowed the storm to weaken slightly back down to a Category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph and central pressure near 930 mb. These replacement cycles allow hurricanes to grow in size, and briefly tradeoff intensity as a result. This means we're likely to see Milton make another run at Category 5 status later today.
Category 4 Hurricane Milton is located about 500 miles southeast of the Tampa region, and is beginning it's more northernly turn towards the Sunshine State. We expect Milton to continue peaking in intensity over the next 12-18 hours, fluctuating between a Category 4 and Category 5 Hurricane, before slowly weakening as the storm approaches landfall on Florida's west coast.
Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes in modern history for a substantial portion of Florida's west coast, especially between Sarasota and Tampa, with authorities urging residents to evacuate or prepare for widespread disruptions.
Storm Track and Latest Forecast
Milton is tracking northeast at 10 mph and will likely make landfall near Tampa Bay. The storm's intensity has been fueled by unusually warm Gulf waters, which have allowed Milton to reach the near theoretical maximum strength for a hurricane in it's environment. Only Hurricane Rita (2005), The "Labor Day" Hurricane (1935), Hurricane Gilbert (1988) and Hurricane Wilma (2005) have had lower minimum barometric pressure than Milton, which bottomed out near 897 mb last night.
Model guidance is in good agreement that Milton will continue trekking northeast towards Florida's west coast over the next 24-48 hours before making landfall between Sarasota and Tampa in the very early morning hours of Thursday. While Milton is expected to have weakened by then, we're still anticipating a major hurricane with destructive winds, extreme storm surge, heavy rainfall, and severe thunderstorms.
The exact track of Milton will be crucial for Tampa Bay. If Milton tracks directly over or just north of St. Petersburg and Tampa, we are likely to see the worst-case-scenario for that region with record breaking storm surge and wind gusts >115 mph. For decades, emergency managers have dreaded this type of event for this particular location due to the shape of the bay and the dense population of these cities at around sea level. If Milton tracks just south of St. Petersburg and Tampa, the worst of the storm surge will be limited to areas further south like Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda, and overall less significant. It should be stressed that even a less significant surge for any of these locations will still mean a high likelihood of destruction with extreme flooding possible.
Key Regional Impacts in Florida
1) Florida's West Coast (The Big Bend down to the Port Charlotte – including Tampa Bay)
The Tampa Bay region is facing a potential nightmare scenario as Hurricane Milton approaches late Wednesday and into Thursday.
Timing: The heaviest impacts are expected to start Wednesday night (between 8 PM and 11 PM ET), peak during the overnight and early morning hours of Thursday (between 11 PM ET and 5 AM ET), and last into the beginning of Thursday (between 5 AM ET and 9 AM ET).
Storm Surge: A catastrophic storm surge of 10-15 feet is forecasted for coastal areas from Cedar Key to St. Petersburg, inundating communities and low-lying areas. Tampa Bay is especially vulnerable, with surge potentially overwhelming flood defenses and causing long-lasting infrastructure damage. Heavily populated may be underwater and remain that way for an extended period.
Winds: Wind speeds of 100-130 mph are expected during landfall near the Tampa Bay areas, with gusts surpassing 145 mph at times along the immediate shoreline, which will cause widespread destruction to buildings, homes, and transportation infrastructure. The combination of strong winds and rain will down power lines, resulting in outages that could last for weeks.
Rainfall and Flash Flooding: The general area can expect 6-12 inches of rainfall, exacerbating the risk for flash flooding in areas that have already seen heavy rain over the last few days. Urban flooding will be a major issue, especially in areas like downtown Tampa and St. Petersburg. Roads may become impassable, and evacuations are already underway across the region.
2) Central Florida (Orlando to Gainesville)
Central Florida will see significant impacts despite being further inland. Milton will be moving fast enough during and after landfall that the storm will retain parts of its core and bring damaging wind gusts and flooding miles away from landfall.
Timing: The heaviest impacts are expected to start overnight Wednesday and into the early morning hours of Thursday (between 11 PM and 4 AM ET), peak during Thursday morning (between 4 AM ET and 11 AM ET), and last into the early afternoon hours Thursday (between 11 AM ET and 2 PM ET).
Winds: Tropical-storm-force winds are likely for cities like Orlando and Gainesville, with even high wind gusts that could reach 75-90 mph at times. Isolated wind gusts over 100 mph cannot be ruled out, especially further west. These winds will still cause sustained damage, but more scattered in nature compared to the coastline. Damage to roofs, power lines, and trees will lead to treacherous roadways and extensive power outages.
Rainfall and Flash Flooding: The general area can expect 6-12 inches of rainfall, exacerbating the risk for flash flooding in areas that have already seen heavy rain over the last few days. Urban flooding will be a major issue, especially in areas like downtown Tampa and St. Petersburg. Roads may become impassable, and evacuations are already underway across the region.
Severe Weather: Tornadoes are possible as the outer bands of Hurricane Milton move through Central Florida. These tornadoes could bring localized damage, particularly in vulnerable areas.
3) South Florida (Cape Coral to Boca Raton & south, including Miami)
South Florida is likely to experience tropical storm conditions at times, especially along the coastlines. The west coast of this region up towards Naples and Cape Coral will experience the worst of it, with substantial storm surge and heavy rainfall.
Timing: The heaviest impacts are expected to start Wednesday night (between 8 PM and 11 PM ET), peak during the overnight and early morning hours of Thursday (between 11 PM ET and 5 AM ET), and last into the beginning of Thursday (between 5 AM ET and 7 AM ET).
Winds: Strong wind gusts and occasional tropical-storm force winds will be likely for parts of this region, but particularly for the Cape Coral region. Parts of Fort Myers and Cape Coral will experience gusts up to 60 mph Wednesday night and overnight into the very early hours of Thursday morning. The rest of the coastline should expect sustained winds between 20 and 30 mph with gusts between 40 and 45 mph at times.
Rainfall and Flash Flooding: The general area can expect 3-6 inches of rainfall, exacerbating the risk for flash flooding in areas that have already seen heavy rain over the last few days. Heavy thunderstorms from the outer bands of Milton have a chance of bring isolated totals >6 inches and a higher risk of flash-flooding. Overall, flooding should be localized.
Storm Surge: Areas along the southern coast, particularly the Florida Keys, could experience a storm surge between 1 and 3 feet, leading to localized coastal flooding.
4) Florida's East Coast (Delray Beach to Jacksonville)
While the east coast of Florida will experience a weaker version of Hurricane Milton, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and some storm surge will still impact this portion of the coastline.
Timing: The heaviest impacts are expected to start overnight Wednesday and into the early morning hours of Thursday (between 12 AM and 3 AM ET), peak during the first half of Thursday (between 7 AM ET and 1 PM ET), and last into Thursday afternoon (between 1 PM and 3 PM).
Winds: Strong wind gusts and occasional tropical-storm force winds will be possible for the southern portion of this region (Vero Beach down to Delray Beach), but the worst of the storm will remain north of Vero Beach and up towards Daytona. In this central-eastern part of the state, hurricane-force winds between 60 and 80 mph should be expected, with some isolated gusts up to 90 mph. Substantial wind-related damage is possible. Further north towards Jacksonville, stronger wind gusts between 35 and 50 mph will be possible.
Rainfall and Flash Flooding: The general area can expect 6-10 inches of rainfall, exacerbating the risk for flash flooding in areas that have already seen heavy rain over the last few days. The heaviest rainfall will be just north of the storms core, so places like Oak Hill, Daytona Beach, and up towards Palm Coast have the best shot of seeing 8-10+ inches of rainfall and more substantial urban flooding.
Storm Surge: Areas along the norther coastline, particularly north of Daytona Beach, could see minor to moderate storm surge between 2 and 5 feet. This will likely lead to some flooding across low-lying areas.
Transportation Disruptions and Key Shutdowns
Hurricane Milton will have severe consequences for Florida's critical infrastructure and supply chain. Major hubs like Tampa International Airport of the Port of Tampa are already shutting down, and could remain closed for days after the event.
Airports and Ports: Tampa International Airport will suspend operations starting Tuesday, and other major airports, including Orlando International, will close by Wednesday. Port operations along the Gulf Coast, including the Port of Tampa, will be disrupted by both storm surge and wind damage, impacting regional and national supply chains.
Road Closures: Major highways like I-75, I-4, and I-95 are expected to shut down at times due to flooding, debris, and downed trees. These closures will delay critical shipments and cause disruptions to freight movement across the state.
WeatherOptics Support: The WeatherOptics Impact Intelligence Platform offers real-time road status updates and the ability to plan routes and shipments in advanced based on the weather.
Significant Power Outages
Widespread power outages are expected across Florida, particularly the Tampa Bay and Central Florida regions. Wind gusts exceeding 100-125 mph at times will bring down power lines, and flooding will make restoration efforts difficult.
The WeatherOptics Power Outage Index is predicting millions could lose power during Hurricane Milton's peak, with recovery times varying from days to weeks in the hardest hit areas.
Life & Property Damage
The combination of extreme storm surge, major hurricane wind gusts, up to a foot of rainfall, and severe thunderstorms, will lead to extensive damage across parts of Central Florida. Some areas along the coastline have the potential for complete and total destruction if the worst of the storm surge forecasts come to fruition.
The WeatherOptics Life & Property Index shows the high probability of damage to infrastructure, along with a high risk to life for those who don't evacuate or prepare properly.
Preparedness Recommendations for Business and Residents
Evacuations: Residents in storm surge-prone areas of the Tampa Bay region should evacuate immediately, as the storm surge could make roads impassable. Follow local evacuation orders closely.
Property Preparations: Secure loose outdoor items, board up windows, and reinforce structures where possible. Businesses should prepare for prolonged closures due to storm damage and flooding.
Backup Power: Ensure backup power sources are in place, particularly for essential services like hospitals, pharmacies, and critical infrastructure.
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